Tennis

ATP Finals 2025: All the scenarios for Carlos Alcaraz to reach the semifinals and clinch the year-end No. 1 ranking

The Spanish star controls his own fate in Turin, with both a semifinal berth and the top ranking still on the line.

MARCO BERTORELLO

Turín Update: Nov 12th, 2025 05:17 EST

Lorenzo Musetti’s victory over Alex de Minaur on Day 2 of the Jimmy Connors Group at the ATP Finals has thrown the group wide open, with all four players, including Carlos Alcaraz, still in contention for a semifinal spot.

Alcaraz, the only player so far with two wins, is in the strongest position to advance. Still, there’s one of five remaining scenarios in which he could be eliminated. The math is simple: if he wins just one set, he’s through to the semifinals.

Alcaraz’s ATP Finals fate in his own hands

The Spaniard is the only player who depends solely on his own result. He’ll face Musetti on Thursday (not before 2:30 p.m. ET, on Tennis Channel).

Here’s how the scenarios break down:

Alcaraz advances as group winner

If he beats Musetti by any score.
If he loses in three sets and Taylor Fritz also wins in three sets against Alex De Minaur.

Alcaraz advances as group runner-up

If he loses and De Minaur defeats Fritz.
If he loses in three sets and Fritz beats De Minaur in straight sets.

Alcaraz is eliminated

If he loses in straight sets and Fritz defeats De Minaur.

Alcaraz vs. Sinner: the race for year-end world No. 1

Of course, Alcaraz is also locked in an intense battle with Jannik Sinner to finish the year as world No. 1.

The Spaniard, currently ranked second, will leapfrog the Italian if he defeats Musetti, regardless of what happens in the rest of the tournament. He would also secure the top spot if he loses his final group match but goes on to reach the final.

To hang on to the No. 1 ranking, Sinner needs to win the title, hope Alcaraz loses to Musetti and misses out on Sunday’s final.