NFL Week 6 picks: Bad news for the Chiefs, Eagles take flight again

There are days when I swear I have the worst job in the world. Not just because it’s poorly paid, but because it demands an impossible blend of divine wisdom and masochism. Imagine spending hours poring over trends, point spreads, weather reports, injury updates, lunar calendars, and kicker mood swings - only to end up with seven correct picks. Seven. Just half of the 14 games played in Week 5.

Every so often, I find myself reflecting on this madness. That’s when I turn to the stats to make sense of it all. For just the third time in a decade, three underdogs - each getting more than a touchdown - won outright. It was as if logic packed its bags and went on vacation.

It all started Thursday night. The Rams were favored by seven and a half, and the 49ers, battered like a punching bag, somehow channeled the spirit and grit of Rocky Balboa to pull off a win under the bright lights of SoFi Stadium. From that moment on, my week spiraled downward like a quarterback’s pass with no receiver in sight.

The Cardinals lost to a team that hadn’t won a single game. The Bills - at home, dressed in a white uniform that looked like a budget version of Penn State’s White Out - played the most disastrous game I can remember. Ten penalties. Fumbles. Interceptions. Missed tackles. A level of chaos that would’ve made Kafka blush. It was an avalanche of errors that buried them in their own backyard against the Patriots.

That Sunday night, I caught myself thinking about Federico Valverde. Yes, the Uruguayan midfielder from Real Madrid. He recently admitted he doesn’t enjoy playing as a fullback, but he does it anyway. I remembered that and smiled. The exact reason why doesn’t matter. Valverde says he doesn’t like it, but he shows up and does the job. There’s something admirable in that - knowing you’re part of a team that demands sacrifice.

But there’s also something absurd about it. Because playing professional soccer, even in a position you don’t enjoy, hardly qualifies as “the worst job in the world.”

He’s not waking up at 4 a.m. to collect other people’s trash. He’s not dealing with the humidity of an industrial laundry, or the loneliness of a graveyard shift in a warehouse. And he’s definitely not sitting in front of RedZone watching his predictions collapse while his coffee goes cold.

So no, Valverde doesn’t have the worst job in the world. And playing out of position isn’t quite the hardship it’s made out to be.

There’s always someone suffering more than we are. This week, that someone was the Ravens’ defense. A team with Super Bowl aspirations that gave up more freedom than spring break security guards at a Cancun nightclub. Baltimore surrendered 44 points to Houston - a loss so brutal the scoreboard felt like divine punishment.

And things weren’t much better for the Raiders, steamrolled 40-6 by the Colts. So far in the 2025 season, we’ve seen 14 games where teams scored 40 or more points - the highest total through five weeks since 1970. It’s no secret the NFL has tilted the scales in favor of offenses for years now, but some franchises still haven’t figured out that you’ve got to put up a fight.

Week 5 gave us comebacks galore, wrecking predictions like a bowling ball crashing into pins. Five teams erased double-digit deficits. Tennessee, led by rookie Cam Ward, clawed back from 18 down against Arizona. The Panthers overcame a 17-point hole versus Miami. The Broncos rallied from 14 behind against Philly. The Saints erased 11 against the Giants. And the Commanders came back from 10 to beat the Chargers. The NFL has officially become a crash course in miracles.

And the endings? They were pure chaos. We’ve already had 24 games decided in the final two minutes or overtime - the most ever through five weeks. Seven teams won that way just last week. Tampa Bay leads the pack with four last-minute victories. They’re the sports equivalent of that friend who always shows up late to the party but brings the best beer and snacks.

I finished 7-of-14 on my picks. My worst week of the year. I try to justify it by saying it was an unusual weekend, but the real challenge is predicting the accidents - not explaining them away. And that’s hard. Take this for example: The AFC South went undefeated this week. So did the NFC South. First time that’s happened since 2002. The Jaguars are 4-1, and their only loss came against Jake Browning. Not even the writers of Ted Lasso would’ve dared to script something that absurd.

And yet, in the middle of the wreckage, something keeps pulling me back. There’s a moment - usually Monday night - when the final pass hangs in the air and everything is decided in seconds. That’s when I remember why I do this every week. Because yes, there are worse jobs out there. But few that make you feel so alive every time you fail.

I don’t have the worst job in the world. But this week, after handing off my daughter to her grandparents so I could dive into scores, percentages, comebacks, miscalculations, and surprises that no longer surprise, I felt like the worst at my job.

Game of the Week: Lions at Chiefs (-1.5)

As the season rolls on, Kansas City is starting to look less like the juggernaut that steamrolled last year’s schedule. The three-time defending AFC champs have already lost more games than they did all of last season - and they’ve done it in a puzzling way: every loss has come by less than a touchdown. That stat defies the logic of a team that went a perfect 11-0 in one-score games in 2024.

Detroit’s visit to Arrowhead comes at a moment when Patrick Mahomes’ dynasty is facing its first real turbulence. The Chiefs have stumbled against the Chargers, Eagles, and Jaguars - three teams that exposed their poor clock management and the inconsistency of an offense that once dictated the tempo of every game.

The Lions, meanwhile, are rolling. Four straight wins, averaging 40.3 points per game, and an offense so versatile it feels custom-built to dismantle defenses like Kansas City’s. Detroit boasts two running backs - David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs - who’ve each surpassed 300 rushing yards. No Chiefs player has even cracked 200. That contrast speaks volumes about the identity of each team.

Detroit’s offense doesn’t rely on a single star. Three receivers have already topped 200 yards in just five weeks, and Jameson Williams leads the NFL in yards per catch at 20.3. Every drive feels like a statement.

And Dan Campbell’s defense is no slouch either. With 16 sacks, the Lions rank second in the league in quarterback pressure. Kansas City hasn’t faced a defensive front this aggressive since Week 2. The challenge for Mahomes and his O-line will be keeping that pressure from disrupting the rhythm before the magic of his arm can take over.

The numbers point to a shootout. Detroit leads the NFL with 34.8 points per game and has hit that mark or higher in each of the last four contests. If they do it again, they’ll join a historic list of offensive powerhouses that includes the 2007 Patriots, 1999 Rams, and 2013 Broncos.

The recent head-to-head favors Detroit, who stunned the Chiefs 21-20 in the 2023 Kickoff Game. That night felt like a fluke. Now, it sounds like a warning.

Pick: Lions 27, Chiefs 24

Quick picks

• Eagles at Giants (-7.5):

Philly blew a ridiculous lead against Denver, but this is the kind of game where they restore credibility.

Pick: Eagles 28, Giants 21

• Broncos (-7.5) at Jets:

Sean Payton has turned a team with heart into one with talent. The Jets have neither right now.

Pick: Broncos 24, Jets 17

• Rams (-7.5) at Ravens:

Baltimore got humiliated by Houston. That won’t happen again - but it doesn’t mean they’ll win.

Pick: Rams 30, Ravens 24

• Cowboys (-3.5) at Panthers:

Dak Prescott is playing like an MVP candidate. The offense looks exactly how fans - and Jerry Jones - like it.

Pick: Cowboys 23, Panthers 16

• Cardinals at Colts (-5.5):

The Colts execute and shine. Arizona competes, then collapses.

Pick: Colts 27, Cardinals 20

• Seahawks at Jaguars (-1.5):

Jacksonville pulled off a signature win against the Chiefs, but it feels like they spent all their karma on that Trevor Lawrence play.

Pick: Seahawks 24, Jaguars 21

• Chargers (-5.5) at Dolphins:

This game has me as disoriented as stepping off a cross-country flight. But Harbaugh teams usually bounce back after a loss.

Pick: Chargers 24, Dolphins 18

• Browns at Steelers (-4.5):

A slugfest with little flair. Pittsburgh always finds one weird play to seal the win.

Pick: Steelers 20, Browns 17

• Patriots (-3.5) at Saints:

Drake Maye is a future star - and he’ll prove it again.

Pick: Patriots 17, Saints 14

• Titans at Raiders (-5.5):

A strange game to watch, even stranger to bet on.

Pick: Raiders 21, Titans 17

• 49ers at Buccaneers (-2.5):

Tampa’s riding high, but San Francisco still knows how to control the tempo.

Pick: 49ers 27, Buccaneers 24

• Bengals at Packers (-14.5):

Joe Flacco in rescue mode vs Jordan Love trying to prove himself.

Pick: Packers 24, Bengals 17

• Bills (-4.5) at Falcons:

Buffalo swings between brilliance and disaster. Atlanta can’t keep up either way.

Pick: Bills 27, Falcons 20

• Bears at Commanders (-4.5):

Chicago fights hard but can’t close.

Pick: Commanders 21, Bears 17

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