MVP odds before Week 10: Bad news for Mahomes, Stafford, Maye and Baker chasing Josh Allen
Here’s everything you need to know about the MVP odds ahead of Week 10 in the NFL season.
As we gear up for Week 10 in the NFL, here’s a look at the odds for MVP ahead of yet another round of fascinating games.
Before the weekend, the betting landscape is more revealing than ever. According to the futures market at Polymarket, Josh Allen leads the field with a 27% probability, followed by Drake Maye at 18%, Matthew Stafford at 16%, Patrick Mahomes at 14% and Sam Darnold at 7%.
Mahomes is a magician pic.twitter.com/dN9Bu5a1PC
— Steven Patton (@PattonAnalytics) October 29, 2025
Meanwhile, Mahomes at 14 % is tough to read and was literally slashed in half after last weekend; one would expect a perennial MVP contender to bounce back strongly and command higher odds, but the market is signalling caution.
The stats are clear, too. In the 28-21 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, Mahomes completed just 15 of 34 passes (44.1 %), added one interception and finished with 250 yards through the air. It marked the first time in his nine-year starting career he’d completed fewer than 50 % of his pass attempts in a regular-season game.
However, while Mahomes looked uncharacteristically off-rhythm, the Bills’ quarterback, Josh Allen, completed 23 of 26 (88 %) passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns. He’s the leader of the pack for a reason.
Top NFL MVP candidates according to Polymarket:
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) November 5, 2025
Josh Allen 27%
Drake Maye 18%
Matthew Stafford 16%
Patrick Mahomes 14%
Sam Darnold 7%
Mahomes' odds were cut in HALF after losing to Buffalo. Does he still have a shot? pic.twitter.com/dd1NWIfbuJ
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Looking at the Week 10 betting odds in general, the point spreads tell their own story. The narrowest line of the weekend sees the New England Patriots listed as just 2.5-point underdogs against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, suggesting a near toss-up. At the other end of the scale, the Buffalo Bills enter as hefty 9.5-point favourites over the Miami Dolphins.
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