Chiefs seeking to save the season: check out our NFL Week 12 picks

The National Football League often behaves like that veteran athlete who claims he does everything for the love of the game, even though everyone knows other interests are at play. While collecting foreign stadium stamps in its passport with the enthusiasm of a travel influencer, the NFL maintains that its mission is to bring the sport to the entire planet. Yet behind this is a less romantic urgency. Football no longer thrives at home as it once did, and the ecosystem needs fresh contributors.

Last Sunday, Madrid hosted its first game, giving the Bernabéu another iconic moment in the league’s expanding global portfolio. It was the seventh game of the season played outside the United States, and there is already talk of nine next year. In fact, Roger Goodell and the owners’ ambition is to reach 16 international games in the near future. Australia and Rio de Janeiro are set to join the calendar in 2026, while London has generated more than 2.6 billion dollars in economic impact since 2007 and Munich surpassed 80 million in its inaugural game alone. Spain hopes to follow their example. For the NFL, these numbers act as both compass and justification for expansion. More than 60 international games have taken place since the first official match in Mexico in 2005.

The official narrative is that the aim is simply to bring the spectacle closer to more fans. However, there is much more beneath the surface. Football has stagnated at grassroots level. Scientific revelations about CTE changed the sporting choices of millions of families. According to a study by The Washington Post, participation among children and young people declined sharply after 2010, and although there has been a slight rebound in the past two years, numbers remain well below the 2009 peak. The trend hit most states hard, particularly wealthier and liberal communities. The decline has also changed player demographics. Fewer white and black boys are entering contact football, while participation among Hispanic boys is rising. This NCAA season, seven quarterbacks of Hispanic origin started for Division I teams. Diego Pavia at Vanderbilt has been one of the sensations of the season, while Fernando Mendoza at Indiana is a Heisman Trophy candidate and likely first round draft pick.

Before the playoffs last season, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart warned that the team had its weakest depth in decades and that recruiting elite talent was becoming increasingly difficult.

The NFL recognised this reality some time ago and has tried to adapt. It has changed rules, upgraded helmets and equipment, invested in technology, and now highlights progress in player safety. But concerns remain. To sustain a business generating roughly 25 billion dollars annually, the league needs continued growth. If the domestic talent pool does not expand, it must be found elsewhere. Hence the push for the International Player Pathway and the NFL Academy, which operates in England and Australia with a model combining education, elite performance, and global scouting. More than 40 international players have signed with teams since the programme began, and 23 are currently on rosters. The academy has an impeccable record in Europe and regularly hosts visits from league stars who see it as fertile ground for the next generation.

The ambition does not stop there. The Wall Street Journal reported this week that the league is monitoring the revival of supersonic travel. Boom Supersonic’s XB 1 aircraft recently broke the sound barrier, and this alone has piqued the interest of NFL executives. Travelling from New York to London in under four hours would change everything. The goal is not to relocate teams but to make the planet smaller and more accessible for the product.

Football is living through a paradox. Sundays are achieving unprecedented television ratings driven by late drama, with five games decided on the final play of Week 11 and 43 resolved in the last two minutes or overtime. Although the league continues delivering record excitement, talent development is not keeping pace. That is why the NFL is crossing oceans and opening academies designed to produce athletes who are not yet part of the system. Perhaps in 30 or 40 years, the lineman who anchors a dynasty will come from Sydney or Seville. The league may already believe that, which explains the current urgency.

Game of the Week

Colts at Chiefs (-3.5):

Arrowhead is burning, not metaphorically but in competitive intensity. The empire that has held power for nine years is now under strain. The Chiefs are 5 5, and their loss in Denver has led many to doubt whether Patrick Mahomes and the rest of the team can turn things around. Mahomes has been unusually inconsistent. He is completing only 44.7 per cent of his passes in the fourth quarter when trailing. For a player renowned for thriving under pressure, that statistic reflects a wider crisis.

Week 12 is crucial for the Chiefs. Their opponents matter too. Indianapolis is running an offence with a clarity reminiscent of the Peyton Manning era. They do not improvise, they execute. Their 32.1 points per game and 396.9 yards per outing back up a system that Daniel Jones is managing with near perfection. Jonathan Taylor is operating like an American muscle car, powering through defences. His 286 yards in Berlin confirm his form. With 17 touchdowns already, his name joins the conversation alongside Marshall Faulk and LaDainian Tomlinson as the fourth player in NFL history with three touchdowns in five games in one season.

Even so, Arrowhead remains a place where Mahomes feels in control rather than overwhelmed. He has totalled 1,112 yards and 13 touchdown passes in his last four home games and is close to surpassing Peyton Manning in total yards through nine seasons. Kansas City are 4 1 at home, contrasting sharply with their 1 4 record on the road.

Indianapolis arrive sharp. Kansas City arrive desperate. The combination is combustible. And while the narrative suggests the AFC champions are collapsing, the Chiefs have a habit of defying expectations when they are written off. That comes from Mahomes and the winning culture built by Andy Reid.

Colts 21 24 Chiefs

Picks in a nutshell

Bills (-4.5) at Texans: Josh Allen returns to a city where he has never won as a professional. The Texans have always had the edge, but this time the Bills will launch their second straight win. Bills 30 27 Texans

Steelers at Bears (-3): The Bears are evolving. They are one of the surprises of the season and should secure their fourth home win by a narrow margin. Steelers 20 21 Bears

Giants at Lions (-10.5): The Lions are 3 1 at Ford Field. They will not lose two straight, and not to the Giants. Giants 17 28 Lions

Vikings at Packers (-6.5): Injuries and passing game struggles have shaped Green Bay’s season, but Jordan Love has enough tools to secure a home win. Vikings 17 24 Packers

Patriots (-7.5) at Bengals: The Patriots are 5 0 away from home, and the Bengals are likely to become their sixth road victim. Patriots 27 20 Bengals

Jets at Ravens (-14): With four straight wins, Baltimore are again resembling a former Super Bowl contender. The Jets will improve, but not this week. Jets 17 30 Ravens

Seahawks (-13) at Titans: Tennessee’s defence is allowing points at an alarming rate. Seattle are a side that can smell weakness. Seahawks 30 20 Titans

Jaguars (-2.5) at Cardinals: The Cardinals have conceded 42 points in their last two games, a bad omen against a Jaguars team coming off a 35 point performance. Jaguars 30 28 Cardinals

Browns at Raiders (-3): The biggest intrigue is a potential debut for Shedeur Sanders as a starter. Browns 17 14 Raiders

Eagles (-4.5) at Cowboys: Monday’s win in Las Vegas feels misleading. The Eagles will complete the sweep. Eagles 24 20 Cowboys

Falcons at Saints (-1.5): The Saints are coming off a bye, but the Falcons have Bijan Robinson. Falcons 20 17 Saints

Buccaneers at Rams (-6.5): The Rams are legitimate Super Bowl contenders. The Buccaneers are coming off an ugly defeat. Buccaneers 27 33 Rams

Panthers at 49ers (-6.5): The Panthers have been unpredictable, but San Francisco are the better organised side. Panthers 14 24 49ers

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