So, you’re saying there’s a chance? Technically, the Cowboys aren’t out of the playoff picture just yet. Here’s how they can stay in it.
Can the Cowboys still make the playoffs? Here’s the math behind their slim odds
The Dallas Cowboys are coming off their impressive Monday Night Football win against the Raiders, but it might be too little, too late. At 4-5-1, they are hanging by a thread in the NFC playoff race. However, there’s at least somewhat of a spark of optimism in the locker room, as the defense, one of the NFL’s biggest disappointments in the first half of the season, is about to get a huge boost. Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson have arrived, and DeMarvion Overshown and rookie Shavon Revel all made an impact on the Cowboys defense.
that's ☝️
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) November 18, 2025
📺: #DALvsLV on ESPN
📲: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/RmDxAeDdUk pic.twitter.com/AnwA7rAmxS
On paper, this could be the healthiest, most complete version of the Cowboys we’ve seen all season. And they’ll need every bit of that if they want to keep their postseason hopes alive. Because the brutal reality of the math is that the Cowboys almost certainly need at least nine total wins (five more this season) to make it to the postseason at this point.
What the Cowboys must do to stay alive in the NFC playoff race?
Since the NFL expanded the regular season to 17 games and added a third Wild Card spot per conference, teams in Dallas’ position rarely recover. Between 2020 and 2024, 55 teams started a season with three or fewer wins through their first nine games. Only five of them made the playoffs. If you look exclusively at the 17-game era, that number drops to four out of 43.
There are definitely historical examples to support the Cowboys (3-5-1) scratching and clawing their way to a playoff berth.
— RJ Ochoa (@rjochoa) November 11, 2025
It goes without saying it is a pretty big longshot, though. pic.twitter.com/kDUcLEv9LR
The only exception to the nine-win threshold came in 2020, when the Washington Football Team won the NFC East with a 7-9 record, largely because the division was a mess that year. Aside from that anomaly, every playoff team that started this slowly had to finish at least 9-8. The most recent example is the 2023 Green Bay Packers, who started 3-6 before rallying to a 9-8 finish and becoming the first No. 7 seed ever to win a playoff game. So yes, it’s been done before...but rarely.
The road to the postseason...
Here’s what stands between the Cowboys and that magic number:
- Philadelphia Eagles (Nov. 23)
- Kansas City Chiefs (Nov. 27)
- @ Detroit Lions (Dec. 5)
- Minnesota Vikings (Dec. 15)
- Los Angeles Chargers (Dec. 21)
- @ Washington Commanders (Dec. 25)
- @ New York Giants (Jan. 4)
Even with generous projections, there aren’t many layups here. The Commanders, and Giants are the most likely wins, which would bring Dallas to six victories.
That means three more are needed from the tougher matchups, which could potentially include a home win over Philadelphia, a split between Minnesota and L.A., and an upset against one of the NFL’s heavyweights (Kansas City or Detroit).
That would put the Cowboys at 9-7-1, which might barely keep them in the conversation. Anything less, and the door probably closes for good. The current odds on the NFL Football Power Index are not good: The Cowboys only have a 6.7 percent chance of making the playoffs according to the data on ESPN.
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