Why is the U.S. government facing shutdown if the Republicans have a majority in the House and Senate?
On Tuesday, Republicans and Democrats must agree on the terms of a spending bill if they’re to avoid a federal government shutdown.
The U.S. government is on the brink of its first federal shutdown in nearly seven years, with Republicans in Congress unable to secure the Democratic support they need to push through a stopgap spending bill.
What’s the shutdown deadline?
Lawmakers in Washington, D.C., must agree on legislation by midnight ET today, Tuesday September 30, to avoid a shutdown.
It would be the first since President Trump’s first term in the White House, when deadlock in Congress led to a 35-day shutdown between December 2018 and January 2019. It was the longest in U.S. history.
Earlier this month, Republicans in the House of Representatives, Congress’s lower chamber, passed a bill that would fund the federal government until November 21. In the Senate, however, the GOP has been unable to get the votes it needs for the legislation to advance in the upper chamber.
But don’t the Republicans have control of both houses?
Yes: In the last congressional elections, held on the same day as November 2024’s presidential election, the Republican Party won a majority of seats in both the House and the Senate.
Currently, the GOP holds 219 of the 435 seats in the House - just above the threshold of 218 needed for a majority. In the Senate, meanwhile, the Republicans also have a small majority, as they account for 53 of the 100 seats.
However, while the GOP’s slim majority in the House allowed them to push their seven-week spending bill through the lower chamber, the rules of the Senate make it harder to pass a bill in the upper house.
In the House, a simple majority is good enough to approve legislation. But in the Senate, most bills - including the spending bill currently on the table - need to secure the support of at least 60 senators.
That’s because three-fifths of the Senate must agree to end the debate phase that takes place before legislation is put to a vote by the chamber. Without meeting this 60-vote threshold, the bill’s progress stalls.
Once the Senate advances to a vote on the legislation itself, this final ballot only needs a simple majority.
The 60-vote threshold appears to have been designed in an attempt to get political parties to work with each other. It “ensures that in order to pass legislation, the majority party needs to get some buy-in from the minority”, CBS News notes.
However, the desired cooperation between Republicans and Democrats is not currently in evidence.
GOP unable to get Dem support
Given that Republicans hold 53 seats in the Senate, they need at least seven Democrats to support their stopgap spending bill.
In return for their backing, the Dems are seeking an extension of Obamacare health-care subsidies that are due to expire at the end of 2025, and a rollback of Republican cuts to Medicaid, a program that also helps to cover Americans’ medical costs. The Dems’ demands have met with GOP opposition.
Speaking on Monday, the Republican vice-president J.D. Vance said: “I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing. I hope they change their mind, but we’re going to see.”
Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate minority leader, countered: “[The Republicans’] bill has not one iota of Democratic input. That is never how we’ve done this before. It’s up to the Republicans whether they want a shutdown or not.”
What happens to federal workers if there’s a shutdown?
According to the Congressional Budget Office, a shutdown forces federal agencies to “cease normal spending”.
Some agencies whose employees are considered essential - such as national defense, air-traffic control and law enforcement - must continue working during a shutdown, with no guarantees that their staff will get paid for their work.
The CBO says such workers “almost certainly” will be be remunerated, but adds that this “requires specific Congressional approval”.
Federal employees not deemed essential will be furloughed: they are “placed in a non-pay, nonduty status, until the shut-down ends”, the CBO says.
Agencies such as the Social Security Administration would continue to operate: the SSA would carry on distributing benefits, although it could be expected to suspend some secondary services.
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