What happened to the Golden Dome project? Here’s what we know about the Space Force program and budget
The Space Force general in charge of Trump’s Golden Dome program says that he has a blueprint but gave no details leaving doubts about its cost.
Donald Trump announced a highly ambitious plan to develop and build a “state-of-the-art” missile defense shield dubbed ‘Golden Dome’. He set the cost of the project at $175 billion but others have estimated that it could cost much more, possibly as much as $3.6 trillion.
Space Force General Michael Guetlein, who’s been charged with leading the effort to make Golden Dome a reality, has selected an initial architecture for the program according to the Pentagon. However, no details were given with the Pentagon simple saying in a statement, “it is currently undergoing review and no additional information is available at this time, keeping operational security top of mind.”
This has left it up to speculation what the real price tag will be for Golden Dome. However, defense analyst Todd Harrison at American Enterprise Institute took a stab at potential price ranges for possible architectures.
Cost of Trump’s Golden Dome could be astronomical
Trump said that Golden Dome would be up and running by the end of his second term in office. So that gives three years to complete the project, a very tight timeframe. He also set a very ambitious level of performance for the future system, “very close to 100 percent” effective. As well as stipulating the budget, $175 billion.
Harrison said in an article he wrote that this “iron triangle,” of cost, schedule, and performance, the three things that govern acquisition programs, “cannot close.” In order to improve one of the three “inherently requires sacrifices in one or both of the others.”
The defense analyst laid out six possible architectures, and what their estimated cost would be over the next twenty years. They are as follows:
- Accelerated Homeland Defense: $471 billion
- Space-centric Strategic Defense: $2.4 trillion
- Ground-centric Strategic Defense: $406 billion
- Limited Tactical Defense: $252 billion
- Balanced All-Threat Defense: $1 trillion
- Robust All-Threat Defense: $3.6 trillion
The biggest driver of difference between the estimates is the inclusion of space-based interceptors, which are “the single largest cost driver.” Harrison explains that “the reason space-based interceptors are so expensive is rooted in physics and orbital mechanics.”
The constellation of interceptors would need to be designed so that there is continuous coverage of all potential enemy launch sites. Furthermore, the shorter the flyout time they have, the time between a command being given to fire and the interceptor being able to get to its target before it is too late, the more interceptors that are required.
Harrison says that for example, you would need around 1,000 interceptors for every inter-continental ballistic missile, if you want to target it within the boost phase, which can be as short as three minutes.
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