This is the forecast path of Tropical Storm Imelda: Where it is headed and when it will become a hurricane

Tropical Storm Imelda poses a “significantly reduced” flash-flooding threat to the southeastern United States, with the weather system expected to turn away from the American coastline before developing into a hurricane.

According to an update by the U.S.’s National Weather Service (NWS) today, the storm is expected to move “across and just to the north of the Bahamas tonight”, before sharply shifting eastwards and picking up pace as it moves out to sea during Tuesday and Wednesday.

This could be very bad news for Bermuda, a British Overseas Territory located in the North Atlantic Ocean, around 1,100 miles east of the U.S.’s eastern coastline. A hurricane advisory could soon be issued for the archipelago, says the U.S.’s National Hurricane Center (NHC).

How will Imelda affect the U.S.?

The NHC forecasts that Imelda will lead to one to two inches of total rainfall in areas of southeastern U.S. through Tuesday, with “local maxima of 4 inches”. The regions affected, the NHC says, are: northeastern Florida, coastal South Carolina and coastal sections of North Carolina.

While the NHC notes that this rainfall could lead to “isolated flash and urban flooding” in Florida and the Carolinas, the NWS adds: “Given that the forecast track keeps Imelda well offshore, the flash flooding threat has been significantly reduced.

“In fact, the greatest risk from Imelda will likely not be from heavy rainfall and flooding, but from swells, high surf, and dangerous rip currents along coastal areas of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic.”

Bahamas worse-hit by Imelda

Tropical storm conditions are currently affecting northwestern sections of the Bahamas, a group of islands located some 100 miles southeast of Florida.

Heavier rainfall than in the U.S. - between four and eight inches - is expected in the northwestern Bahamas through Tuesday. This rainfall “will likely produce flash and urban flooding,” the NHC says.

When will Imelda become a hurricane?

As of today, Imelda had caused maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. These winds are predicted to strengthen in intensity in the coming days, the NHC says. As Imelda moves northeastwards into the Atlantic Ocean on Tuesday, it is expected to progress to hurricane status.

A storm is officially classed as a hurricane when its maximum sustained winds reach 74 mph, according to the U.S.’s National Ocean Service.

‘Fujiwhara effect’ at play

As noted by CNN meteorologist Briana Waxman, Tropical Storm Imelda’s interaction with another significant weather system is at the heart of its expected north-east trajectory on Tuesday.

Hurricane Humberto, a category-four hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, is set to pull Imelda with it as it also travels in a north-eastern direction.

This happens as part of what’s known as the ‘Fujiwhara effect’, described by the NWS as an “intense dance” that occurs when two hurricanes spinning in the same direction come close to each other.

Bermuda on alert

Humberto may cause tropical storm conditions on Bermuda on Tuesday, the NHC says. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the archipelago.

What’s more, Imelda’s northeastern path means Bermuda’s tropical storm watch could be replaced by a hurricane watch in the coming hours, the NHC says. As things stand, the agency explains, Imelda is predicted to cause a potential two to four inches of rainfall as it passes Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday.

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