The reason why the 2025 hurricane season is so quiet: What’s happening in the Atlantic Ocean to prevent tropical storms

As is usual in the United States, September is the high point for hurricanes that rip across the Atlantic and throw themselves into the southeast coast of the country — yet this year has been surprisingly quiet, at least so far.

The usual flurry of storm formations is conspicuously missing, prompting both meteorologists and disaster-ready residents to ask: where have all the hurricanes gone?

Gabrielle is currently picking up speed, but is far off the Atlantic Coast and poses little or no threat to hitting land.

The key culprit in the ‘Where’s Waldo: Hurricane Version’ appears to have come from an unlikely source: African sand. Normally, dust from the Sahara drifts into the Atlantic between late June and August. However, this year has been different: high-pressure over the North-Central Atlantic has toned down storm-formation over northern Africa, allowing more dry air and dust to spread over warm Atlantic waters, stifling the storms that often give birth to tropical systems.

Another factor is the current state of what people in white labs coats and thick-rimmed spectacles call the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At present, conditions are “ENSO neutral,” meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña are dominant, and their winds are not influencing hurricane formation in either direction.

In past years, La Niña has tended to favour Atlantic hurricane formation, while El Niño tends to suppress it: as a result, this neutral phase cancels out their effects, and atmospheric ingredients that typically fuel strong Atlantic activity are subdued.

Nevertheless, experts say that hurricane season is far from over. According to NOAA, the Atlantic is still likely to see an above-average number of storms this year. Estimates are for 13-18 named storms, up to nine hurricanes, and possibly five of those reaching Category 3 strength or higher. As such, NOAA are on the lookout for any warning signs.

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“In my 30 years at the National Weather Service, we’ve never had more advanced models and warning systems in place to monitor the weather,” said NOAA’s National Weather Service Director Ken Graham. “This outlook is a call to action: be prepared. Take proactive steps now to make a plan and gather supplies to ensure you’re ready before a storm threatens.”

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