The Dalai Lama’s succession process: Buddhist challenges in the face of Chinese influence

On July 2, just days before his 90th birthday, the 14th Dalai Lama made an announcement that could reignite one of Asia’s most sensitive geopolitical conflicts: there will be a successor.

The Tibetan spiritual leader, living in exile in Dharamshala, India since fleeing his homeland in 1959, confirmed that the search for the next Dalai Lama will be overseen by his own foundation, Gaden Phodrang. This announcement ends years of speculation and signals a clear move against China’s growing push to control Tibetan Buddhism.

But the Chinese government is already pushing back. Beijing insists that it alone has the authority to approve the next Dalai Lama—despite denouncing him as a “separatist” and refusing to acknowledge his spiritual authority.

Why China wants to choose the next Dalai Lama

The Dalai Lama is more than a spiritual figure—he is a symbol of Tibetan identity, one that China has tried to suppress since it took control of Tibet in 1951. With the 14th Dalai Lama now entering his final years, the stakes over his succession couldn’t be higher.

Beijing has declared that the next Dalai Lama must be born in China and officially approved by the Chinese Communist Party. In a recent press briefing, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that any reincarnation must follow “national laws and regulations.”

Tibetan leaders, however, fiercely reject this claim. Youdon Aukatsang, a member of the Tibetan Parliament-in-exile, told the BBC: “China doesn’t have the legitimacy to find the future Dalai Lama.”

Fears are growing that China will attempt to install its own Dalai Lama, bypassing the centuries-old spiritual process and undermining the religious and cultural traditions of Tibetan Buddhism.

“A majority of Tibetans are going to reject it and the majority of people in the world are going to make fun of it,” said Dibyesh Anand, an international relations professor at the University of Westminster. “But remember China has immense authority in terms of resources so they will try to impose that.”

How is the Dalai Lama chosen? inside a 600-year-old process

Tibetan Buddhists believe that the soul reincarnates after death, and that the Dalai Lama, through deep meditation and spiritual training, can influence the details of his rebirth—including where and when it occurs.

All Dalai Lamas are considered reincarnations of the same soul, starting with Gedun Drupa, who was born in 1391.

When a Dalai Lama dies, a team of senior monks begins the search for his successor, typically a boy born shortly after the previous Lama’s passing. Their clues range from the direction of smoke at the cremation pyre to dreams and visions experienced by senior monks.

In the final stages of the search, the child is shown personal items that belonged to the previous Dalai Lama. If the child can identify them or shows a strong connection, it is taken as a divine sign that the soul has returned.

It’s an intricate and sacred process that can take years—and one that now risks being politicized by external forces.

A spiritual rebellion against Beijing

The 14th Dalai Lama, born Tenzin Gyatso, had long avoided the topic of his succession. In a 2019 BBC interview, he even suggested that a woman could be his successor—or that there might be no 15th Dalai Lama at all.

But last week, he changed course dramatically. He now insists there will be a 15th Dalai Lama, and that he will be born outside of Chinese territory, in what he calls “the free world.”

That decision challenges Beijing head-on and reasserts the Dalai Lama’s authority over the tradition.

So far, only two Dalai Lamas have been born outside of today’s Chinese borders: the fourth, born in Mongolia, and the sixth, born in northern India.

The current Dalai Lama himself was identified in 1937, two years after his birth, in a far less connected and less surveilled world. Today, the monks may turn to modern tools like birth certificates and digital records to aid in their search—while still honoring the ancient customs that define this sacred tradition.

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