Robert Reich predicts how the government shutdown will end: “Trump and Republicans will cave”
The former labor secretary says air traffic controllers could trigger the pressure that forces Republicans to strike a deal.
On October 1, 2025, the U.S. government entered a partial shutdown after Congress failed to pass funding bills. The deadlock stems from three key issues: healthcare subsidies, Republican opposition to policy demands, and actions by the Trump administration.
How to break the deadlock
To bring the shutdown to a close, Republicans and Democrats must reach a bipartisan agreement, which means at least one party will need to compromise.
Democrats have refused to support a Republican-backed bill they believe would make healthcare less affordable for Americans. They are also opposed to spending cuts targeting the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Once a deal is reached, Congress must pass, and the president must sign, appropriations bills to restore funding to shuttered departments and agencies. A stopgap measure has cleared the House but has not yet advanced in the Senate.
Robert Reich on how the shutdown ends
So what could finally break the deadlock? Robert Reich, labor secretary under President Bill Clinton, believes pressure from one group of workers could force the Trump administration’s hand.
In his latest newsletter, Reich predicted that the current shutdown will end “sooner than the last one,” a reference to the 35-day closure that stretched across the 2018–2019 holiday season.
“Air traffic controllers will ensure it does,” Reich wrote.
The role of air traffic controllers
Air traffic controllers are considered “essential workers.” That means they must continue working without pay during the shutdown, though they are guaranteed back pay once funding is restored.
Reich explained that if even a small number of controllers begin calling in sick, cascading flight delays will quickly mount. “At that point, pressure will suddenly mount on the White House and Republicans in Congress to end it,” he said.
Who is to blame for the shutdown?
While both parties are technically responsible for the stalemate, Reich argued that Republicans have far more at stake.
“Why [is the pressure] on the White House and congressional Republicans and not on congressional Democrats? Because Republicans now control the government — the presidency, both chambers of Congress, and, effectively, the Supreme Court. They own it,” he wrote.
“They and Trump will be blamed for the shutdown, and they’ll have to get the nation out of it — even at the cost of giving in to congressional Democrats.”
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