Place your bets: Odds are increasing that Trump will be impeached by the end of 2026

President Donald Trump is turning his ire toward members of his own party in the House of Representatives that are backing a vote to release the Jeffrey Epstein files. He has taken to social media to criticize them and the effort calling it a “hoax” that Democrats and the mainstream media are using as a distraction.

The effort gained renewed momentum on Wednesday when the final signature was obtained to force a floor vote. On that day, Republicans on the House Oversight Committee released some 20,000 documents from the Epstein estate after Democrats made public a selection of incriminating communications from the late sex offender talking about Trump.

That same day, odds that Trump would face his third impeachment trial by the end of 2026 spiked on the online gambling site Polymarket. They went from just 5% to 22% on Saturday. They’ve come down slightly since, and are currently at 15%.

What are the chances that Trump will be impeached in 2026?

In 2020, Donald Trump became the third US president to be impeached in the history of the nation. However, none of them have ever been convicted by the Senate.

Trump got the ignominious honor of becoming the first president in US history to be impeached twice after the January 6 assault on the US Capitol by his supporters.

Both of those were brought by the Democrat-controlled Congress but failed garner the necessary two-thirds majority of senators to convict him in the Senate. However, while during the first impeachment, only Republican Senator Mitt Romney joined Democrats to convict, in the second trial, seven GOP senators voted to convict Trump.

Despite the odds rising on Polymarket for another Trump impeachment, the reality is that Republicans currently control both the House and Senate. And there won’t be elections until November 2026.

So, there is little-to-no likelihood that they would allow an impeachment to move forward before the end of next year. That could change if Democrats take control of the House in 2027, but they must find that Trump committed one of the violations described by the Constitution; “treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.”

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