One year until the midterm elections: Republicans must decide to stay faithful to Trump or jump the sinking ship

The off-year election cycle is over with Democratic gubernatorial candidates in New Jersey and Virginia, along with the party’s NYC mayoral nominee, handily winning their respective races. Now the nation will be gearing up for the Midterm Elections which are 12 months away.

The Democrats not only have wind in their sails from their party’s victories on Tuesday, but also new polling that shows the Republican party’s standard bearer, President Donald Trump, is languishing further into negative territory. He currently has an average 13-point net disapproval rating according to data collected by The New York Times.

However, a recent CNN poll put Trump’s net approval rating at negative 26 percent, with the percentage of people who disapprove of his job as president at 63%, higher than at the end of his first term in January 2021. Typically, the performance of the sitting US president influences how voters cast their ballots in the Midterm Elections more than that of the opposition party.

Democrats will still have an uphill battle ahead of them going into the Midterms

According to CNN polling on voter intentions one year out from the Midterms, when asked which party’s congressional candidate they would vote for if the election was held today, respondents gave the Democrats a five-point lead. That is less than their 11% advantage 12 months prior to the 2018 Midterm Elections during Trump’s first term.

Additionally, the percentage of people who expressed a favorable opinion of the Democratic party was at 29%, an all-time low and 8% lower than it was in 2017, at the end of October this year. The Republican party registered a 33% favorable opinion in the same poll.

While Democratic voters have a dimmer view of their own party than GOP-aligned voters, they say that they are extremely motivated to vote in the 2026 Midterms with over two-thirds compared to less than half, respectively, saying that they will cast a ballot in the election.

Nearly 80% of Democratic respondents said their vote will be to send a message about their opposition to Trump. Perhaps more worrying for Republicans is the 45% of moderate Independents that plan to do the same compared to just 13% who say they would vote to show support for the president’s policies.

Will Republicans abandon Trump?

Although the latest polling shows that Americans are dissatisfied with Trump’s policies across the board, the president is living in an alternate reality telling the press: “I have the best poll numbers I’ve ever had.” He has also claimed that he has “the best numbers for any president in many years.”

Trump, in keeping with his M.O., has called the polls that contradict his view “fake” and that it is a conspiracy by news organizations. GOP lawmakers for the time being have been parroting his upside-down reality with “I don’t know” House Speaker Mike Johnson even spouting that Trump has a ridiculous 90% approval rating.

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