How to interpret the results of Election Day 2025: What did we learn about the future for Republicans and Democrats?

Voters made their opposition to President Donald Trump’s policies during the first year of his second term clear on Tuesday night’s off-year ballots, giving Democrats big wins.

Their candidates claimed solid victories in both the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, the mayoral race in New York City, as well as passing Prop 50 in California by solid margins. The party also performed well in less high-profile races.

Exit polls that took the pulse of the American electorate that cast a ballot on Tuesday showed that a majority are upset with the job the White House is doing. Specifically, at making life more affordable and saying that the administration has gone too far with its mass deportation policy.

Democrats won among Independents and Latinos

President Trump has been quickly losing popularity over the first nine months of his second term with his approval numbers going negative soon after taking office in January. Concerns over the economy and how he is enforcing his immigration policies have helped swing Independents and Latinos over to the Democrats.

Independents, who made up just over 30% of the vote in the New Jersey and Virigina gubernatorial races, went for the respective Democratic candidates, Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger, by margins of 13 points and 19 points, respectively. 45% of respondents from this group of voters told pollsters in a CNN survey that their vote in the 2026 Midterms will be one that sends a message of opposition to Trump.

During his 2024 campaign, Trump garnered the highest percentage of the Latino vote of any Republican presidential candidate. On Tuesday, Sherrill and Spanberger won them over by 2-to1 margins.

In the ten New Jersey counties where Latinos make up 20% or more of the population, Sherill took all of them including three that Trump had won in 2024. She outperformed Trump as well, winning Passaic County by a 15-point margin compared to his 3-point victory the year before.

This shift in voting among both Independents and Latinos could spell trouble for Republicans going into the 2026 Midterm cycle. Especially if they have difficulty turning out their own voters without Trump on the ballot.

Meanwhile the actions of the president are creating motivation among people who want to send a message of opposition. Only time will tell if the party continues to blindly follow along with Trump’s policies or modify their own positions.

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