Goodbye to the idea of the ‘perfect family’: Generation Z rewrites the rules in the U.S.
As U.S. birth rates hit record lows, immigration and family-friendly policy shifts grow more vital to sustaining population growth.
More and more, talk of birth and fertility rates is making its way into political discourse in the United States. According to the OECD, for a country’s population to remain stable—without net increases in migration or improvements in average lifespan—a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman capable of giving birth is required.
In the United States, birth rates aren’t directly measured on a per-woman basis; instead, they’re calculated as the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age (defined as ages 15–44). In 2023, the US birth rate hit its lowest level on record: 54.5 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44, down from 67.5 in 2000.
When calculated per woman of childbearing age, the rate fell from 2.1 in 2000 to 1.6 in 2023. 2000 was one of the few years since the early 1970s when the birthrate rose above replacement. The CDC’s on the subject show that the birth rate “has generally been below replacement since 1971 and consistently below since 2007.”
The US population grew as birth rates fell
Despite declining birth rates, the US population grew by 18 percent between 2000 and 2023. In addition to increases in average lifespan, the growth in the number of foreign-born workers highlights the role immigration plays in sustaining and expanding the population. Between 2007 and 2024, the share of foreign-born workers in the U.S. labor force grew by 3.4 percent, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Today, they make up nearly a fifth of the entire civilian workforce.
Immigration is keeping the US population growing and will become even more critical as younger generations increasingly choose to have fewer children, if any at all. Pew Research found that between 2000 and 2023, the number of both men and women who had or planned to have at least one child fell significantly:
2000
- Men: 89% had or planned to have at least one child
- Women: 93%
2023
- Men: 76%
- Women: 77%
Source: Pew Research
Gen Z’s results stand out
Among 20- to 24-year-olds, the drop was especially sharp, with only two-thirds reporting that they were a parent or planned to become one. Between 2002 and 2012, that figure had remained relatively stable, falling just one percent—from 94% to 93%.
Family-friendly policies could make a difference
Across age groups, economic concerns and shifting ideas about family and traditional lifestyles are driving interest in parenthood down. When asked what policies might encourage them to have children, 60 percent cited free child care as a strong motivator. About half also supported paid family leave and more generous tax benefits for parents.
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