Politics

Gavin Newsom vs JD Vance in 2028? These are the probable candidates for the next presidential election

A fresh survey hints that the next U.S. election could set up a clash of rising stars from opposite coasts.

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Update: Oct 27th, 2025 05:38 EDT

A new YouGov poll suggests that the next United States presidential election could pit two relatively young and sharply contrasting figures against each other: California governor Gavin Newsom and U.S. Vice President JD Vance. Both are emerging as the clear favourites among their respective party bases for 2028.

Who’s in the running for U.S. President 2028?

Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, Newsom is now the leading contender to succeed Kamala Harris – who ran last time against Donald Trump – with 55% saying they would consider voting for him in a primary – a 24-point jump since April. Harris follows closely with 54%, but her share of Democrats who call her their ideal nominee has fallen from 25% to 19%.

Newsom is also seen as the most electable: 38% of Democrats think he’d have the best chance of winning the 2028 general election, compared with 16% for Harris. The California governor’s combination of executive experience, national visibility, and aggressive defense of progressive values appears to be resonating with party members.

Ramblings of an old man that knows he’s going to LOSE. pic.twitter.com/JQrXqLXvqn
— Gavin Newsom (@GavinNewsom) October 26, 2025

On the Republican side, the YouGov survey – which notably excluded Donald Trump, due to Constitutional restrictions – finds that 65% of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents would consider voting for Vance, far ahead of Ron DeSantis (40%) and Donald Trump Jr. (37%). Nearly half (44%) name Vance as their ideal nominee, while just 10% pick Trump Jr.

Vance’s standing reflects his influence within the populist right and his close alignment with Trumpism’s themes – without the president himself on the ballot. Asked whether they’d prefer Trump or their top non-Trump pick, most Republicans (59%) say they’d rather move forward with a new candidate.

Returning home from an amazing trip to Israel to celebrate and implement President Trump's historic peace agreement. This is a great moment for our country and the world.

I'm grateful to Prime Minister Netanyahu, President Herzog, and the Israeli government for hosting so many… pic.twitter.com/8avEgwrqEY
— JD Vance (@JDVance) October 24, 2025

The early 2028 race takes shape

While the election is still three years away, the outlines of a potential showdown between Newsom and Vance – two polished, media-savvy figures who embody the current divides in American politics – are already visible. According to YouGov, both parties seem ready to move past their current/previous standard-bearers.

Democratic Party

Would consider voting for:

Gavin Newsom – 55%
Kamala Harris – 54%
Pete Buttigieg – 41%
Tim Walz – 40%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – 38%
Bernie Sanders – 36%

Ideal nominee:

Gavin Newsom – 23%
Kamala Harris – 19%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez – 8%
Pete Buttigieg – 6%
Tim Walz – 5%
Bernie Sanders – 5%

Republican Party

Would consider voting for:

JD Vance – 65%
Ron DeSantis – 40%
Donald Trump Jr. – 37%
Marco Rubio – 33%
Ted Cruz – 29%
Vivek Ramaswamy – 23%

Ideal nominee:

JD Vance – 44%
Donald Trump Jr. – 10%
Ron DeSantis – 8%
Marco Rubio – 4%
Nikki Haley – 3%
Ted Cruz – 2%

Obviously, despite the voting, there remains the proverbial elephant in the Oval Office and we are yet to fully learn what decisions may be made to keep him there. Maybe 2028 will actually be a battle between Trump and the U.S. Constitution.