Fact check: Thanksgiving will be more expensive in 2025 despite Trump’s claims it will be cheaper

I’m going to tell you a secret, dear listener: I am reading George Orwell’s 1984 for the first time. OK, it’s not technically the first time, but it’s the first time I’ve ever managed to get this far reading it without something else getting in the way.

I’m at the part where O’Brien is torturing Winston Smith, and he is holding up four fingers, asking Winston how many he can see. Of course, O’Brien wants the main character to say he can see five, despite all the evidence pointing to him literally holding up four fingers.

It’s beyond cliché to say, but this is Trump’s America, and we’re well past caring about silly things like that: O’Brien’s torturing of Winston Smith, holding up four fingers and telling him there is five, is about as Trumpian as things get.

Despite all the evidence pointing one way (downwards), Trump is adamant that the economy is thriving and good are cheaper for ordinary Americans.

Fact checking Donald Trump

Speaking during a news conference on Friday with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Trump said: “I just saw that Walmart came out with a statement last night, they’ve done it for many years, that Thanksgiving this year will cost 25% less than Thanksgiving last year." Is he right?

The short answer is: no, Donald Trump’s claim that Thanksgiving dinner will cost 25 per cent less this year than last is technically true in one limited case, but only because the comparison he cites is deeply misleading.

Here’s how it works when you objectively look at the numbers. Trump pointed to a deal from Walmart for a pre-packaged “Thanksgiving meal basket” and used it to claim that dinner costs are down sharply. It is correct that Walmart’s 2025 basket, which it says serves 10 people for under US $40 (about US $4 each), is significantly cheaper than its 2024 version, which served eight people at around US $56 (about US $7 each).

But, and this is the important bit, the two offers aren’t equivalent. The newer basket includes fewer items (15 items in 2025 compared with 29 in 2024), leaves out staples like sweet potatoes, onions, celery, pecan pie, mini-marshmallows and more.

Also, many of the items swapped are lower-cost store brands rather than national brands. Experts say this isn’t a direct reflection of broad price drops but rather a marketing strategy and product “downsizing”. It’s cheaper, yes, but also objectively worse.

On the broader question of food prices and inflation: U.S. grocery prices overall are not down 25 per cent. In fact, they have risen around 2.7 per cent year-on-year. And wholesale turkey prices have reportedly jumped by as much as 75 per cent since October 2024 according to one agricultural study.

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So just as you may have expected: Trump’s claim is infinitely more nuanced than the simple headline he’s going for. And he wants you all to believe that he’s holding up four fingers instead of five.

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