Everything you need to know about Russian incursions into NATO airspace and the military escalation in Europe

Over the past fortnight, Russia has repeatedly sent drones and military jets into NATO-controlled airspace, sparking concern among its neighbors and alliance members. Whether by design or miscalculation, these incursions pose difficult dilemmas about how the West should respond.

The latest chapter of the long and complex story broke on 10 September, when nearly twenty Russian drones crossed into Polish skies, with some being shot down.

Similar violations soon followed, this time over Romanian skies. Most startling was the 12-minute intrusion into Estonian airspace by three MiG-31 fighter jets, flying without transponders and ignoring communications as Putin once again pushed the West in a tense showing of brinkmanship. Polish prime minister Donald Tusk said that conflict was closer “than at any time since the second world war”.

Russia “hoping they cause some nations to refuse to support Ukraine”

Elsewhere, German jets were scrambled to shadow a Russian reconnaissance aircraft operating in neutral airspace, after it failed to respond to contact attempts. And in the north, Denmark and Norway were forced to close airports due to suspected drone activity.

Given the repetitive nature of these events, analysts believe these manoeuvres were not mistakes but reflective of a deliberate strategy by Moscow, with the idea being to test NATO’s resolve. Dr David Jordan, of the Freeman Air and Space Institute at King’s College London, called the incursions “at best, accidental on purpose”, and added that Russia “are hoping that they may cause some NATO nations to refuse to participate in supporting Ukraine in some way, by hinting that this might lead to a wider war.”

“This is a typical Russian approach of doing something and then denying it, even when there is clear evidence that it has to be them,” he added.

NATO’s reaction has been firm, with Eastern European members strongly condemning the action; additional air assets from France, Germany, the UK and Denmark have all been tasked with flying around border regions. Estonia formally appealed to the United Nations Security Council, and the UK and Poland both stated they would not hesitate to shoot down Russian aircraft should they infringe airspace again.

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The Guardian cite analysts who say that Russian jets being shot down would de-escalate tensions as Putin’s mettle is truly tested, with David Jordan concluding with the positive thought that “we shouldn’t see military confrontation as an inevitable end point.”

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