Society

Can Donald Trump win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize? Here are the latest odds on the winner

The US president says a loss would be “a great insult” to his country as the Nobel Committee prepares to announce the winner.

Evelyn Hockstein

Mario Espinosa de los Monteros

Update: Oct 10th, 2025 01:43 EDT

Friday 10 October is the day the world will find out who it owes peace to. The Nobel Committee will announce the Peace Prize winner in an atmosphere of speculation and controversy – and among the candidates is President Donald Trump, who has said that losing would be “a great insult” to the United States. The most genuine of all the Nobel Prizes has become the most coveted by one of the world’s most powerful men.

How many Nobel Peace Prize nominations are there?

This year, the committee received 338 nominations for the Nobel Peace Prize – 244 for individuals and 94 for organizations – and among them is the US president, an option that “would be possible,” confirmed Nina Graeger, director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), which advises the committee, speaking to Spiegel.

For Trump, this week’s Gaza Peace Plan, already approved by both Israel and Hamas, is the ultimate proof that he deserves the award. Just days separate the long-awaited agreement and the Nobel announcement. “Both Trump and the committee are running out of time,” said Graeger. “While I wouldn’t rule out them discussing candidates the day before, that would be unusual. But even in that case, I remain skeptical that Trump will receive the prize this year,” she concluded.

If Trump wins, history awaits – and risk for the Nobel’s image

If Trump were to win, he would become the fifth US president to do so, following Theodore Roosevelt, Woodrow Wilson, Barack Obama and Jimmy Carter (who received his decades after leaving office). But Graeger believes that portraying Trump as a man of peace “would draw a great deal of attention to the award. It could damage the reputation of the Nobel Peace Committee, unless he truly manages to secure a lasting peace in Gaza,” she told El País.

Did Trump really end seven wars?

Trump has long branded himself the “president of peace,” claiming to have resolved seven wars in seven months while promoting his Nobel bid. According to the White House, those are “Cambodia–Thailand, Kosovo–Serbia, the Democratic Republic of Congo–Rwanda, Pakistan–India, Israel–Iran, Egypt–Ethiopia, and Armenia–Azerbaijan.”

“It’s a bold claim,” Graeger said. “I believe several of those supposed conflicts aren’t real wars. Of course, this US administration has contributed to de-escalation in some areas [...] But when you look at what the Indian prime minister said about negotiations with Pakistan, there are doubts about whether Trump had any role. And these seven conflicts are prolonged and highly complex – have they really been resolved? There are also other Trump policies that significantly diverge from Nobel’s vision.”

Trump’s ‘anti-peace’ actions

For instance, Graeger noted that under Trump, the United States “withdrew from international organizations and agreements such as the WHO and the Paris Accord.” She also cited “his desire to purchase Greenland from Denmark – which would have violated international law – the trade wars with friends and allies around the world, and his actions at home regarding freedom of the press, expression, and academia, human rights, and the deployment of the National Guard.”

“But of course, a lasting peace deal in Gaza would be of great importance both for the region and for the Nobel Committee,” she added. “However, I see that as more likely next year.”

Who is the favorite for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize?

Another gauge in moments like this are the betting markets, which currently favor Sudan’s Emergency Response Room, an initiative providing humanitarian aid amid the civil war that erupted in April 2023, with a 37% chance of victory.

According to El País, next in line are Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny (9%), Médecins Sans Frontières (7%), and the International Court of Justice (6%). Trump currently holds a 6% chance, followed by UNRWA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, at 4%. Only one of those is publicly asking for it.